MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Management information systems are valuable tools that can help decisionmakers in planning and evaluating agronomic practices to create sustainable agricultural development. In Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America, IFDC's researchers work on projects to implement information systems and decision support systems to support agricultural development activities. Working in collaboration with national and international agricultural institutions, IFDC's systems modeling scientists develop crop and nutrient models, which are then linked with socioeconomic models, expert systems, and geographic information systems. These models provide valuable information to decisionmakers by simulating the effects of weather and the primary biological interactions in agricultural production systems. Such models can readily simulate the effects of soil properties, varieties, and inputs such as fertilizer and irrigation on crop growth and development. These scientists assist researchers in planning and evaluation of agronomic practices and nutrient dynamics for various ecosystems.

Yield Forecasting

Even though various empirical systems of crop forecasting have been developed, based mainly on statistical estimates, many countries still en- counter great difficulty in forecasting and producing reliable crop yield production estimates for supporting development of policy, economic, and financial strategies. This situation is due mainly to a lack of organization in fore- casting services and slowness in developing dynamic forecasting systems. In addition, the results are generally assembled too late to pro- vide adequate information for policy decisions and marketing services or for early warning and emergency food procurement purposes.

IFDC has made substantial progress in formulating effective crop forecasting procedures. Crop modeling techniques and empirical estimation methods, complemented with geographical and attribute databases and geostatistical procedures, have proven to be effective techniques in forecasting yields and estimating crop production.

Development of Agricultural Information Services

Many countries are attempting to upgrade or develop their current agricultural information services. Many of these services are associated with the estimation of crop areas, estimation of crop and fertilizer production and consumption, development of demand and supply strategies, input-output analyses, and development of national or regional databases and information systems for monitoring technology development. With the advent of modem techniques in data management, communications, and in- formation systems development, efforts have been and are being made to improve the quality of information by modifying the reporting system and gradually implementing modem approaches in statistical techniques and data base development. IFDC has contributed to these developments by assisting countries in assessing their needs, by providing training, and by implementing information services in a variety of projects.

Fertilizer Recommendation Services

In most developing countries, fertilizer recommendation services must be strengthened considerably if they are to provide accurate and economic information in a timely fashion. In- creased emphasis must be given to optimizing economic returns to fertilizer use. Risk analysis and decision systems should be included in the recommendations, in addition to the usual economic interpretations of yield response data. Moreover, fertilizer recommendations must be coordinated with laboratory analyses and product availability, management practices, and farm input supplies. The recommendation service should provide a basis for current appraisal of the economics of fertilizer use and its impact on the environment.

Decision Support Systems

Integration and collation of information for de- livery to decisionmakers in a format for direct use in problem solving is a key activity at IFDC. Decision support systems provide a framework for supplying information and consist of computer-based tools such as crop models and databases. Various projects are aimed at providing, analyzing, and interpreting information for use by researchers and clients at the experimental plot, farm, regional, and national levels.

Application of Geographic Information Systems

IFDC has the capability to conduct projects that require the use of geographic information systems (GIS) -computer-based tools for the entry, storage, analysis, and display of spatial data. A variety of GIS software packages can be run on a number of computer platforms, and a wide variety of natural resource databases are accessible to users.