IFDC’s fertilizer trade model, FertTrade, was developed as an analytical tool to evaluate scenarios of changing demographic, economic, technological and agro-climatic circumstances affecting agricultural production. In addition, IFDC economists use FertTrade to forecast and evaluate changes and trends in the global demand, production and trade of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) fertilizer nutrients.
Currently, FertTrade is being used to forecast the potential impact of the development, adoption and use of improved fertilizer N technologies. These technologies will increase the efficiency of nitrogen fertilizer applied to cereal crops from today’s average of 40 percent efficiency to 60 percent or higher.
FertTrade can evaluate the impact of a range of “what if” scenarios affecting global markets for N, P and K fertilizer nutrients through 2025. Today’s uncertainty about agriculture’s capacity to keep pace with rapidly changing demand makes forecasting models – which link such changes with demand for fertilizers – valuable tools for short- and long-term planning of fertilizer production, distribution and marketing.
IFDC will use FertTrade to improve decision-making on policy changes and technology development and transfer to enhance the performance of fertilizer and agricultural sectors at global, regional and national levels. It will be particularly useful in developing countries. Use of FertTrade can produce information that will facilitate the efficient trade of 30-40 percent of the fertilizer nutrients produced worldwide and prevent or minimize shortages and price spikes that may negatively impact fertilizer use and agricultural production.
Fertilizer demand is derived from, and depends on, demand for agricultural products – food, feed, fiber and biofuel. FertTrade analyzes factors that affect the demand, supply and trade of agricultural products – which also affect and determine changes in fertilizer demand. Such factors include national populations and incomes, technological advances in agricultural and fertilizer sectors, climate change and the demand for biofuels.