Inter-Annual Climate Variability

Climate variability measured in seasonal and inter-annual scales is a key factor affecting agricultural production in South America. Precipitation and temperature anomalies often result in huge cereal and pasture yield reduction and, consequently, economical losses for the farmers. Countries in South America, as in most of the developing world, are usually unprepared to cope with climatic anomalies in an effective way. Governments typically react to a climatic extreme event through "crisis management" rather than through the formulation and implementation of anticipatory measures commonly referred to as "risk management." A typical reason mentioned by decision-makers for the lack of such risk management policies has been the lack of means to predict climate conditions (e.g., precipitation) with sufficient skill and lead time.

In some regions of the world, this situation has changed dramatically due to recent advances in the capacity to predict climate anomalies linked to the onset and intensity of a warm or cold event as part of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Since ENSO is the main source of inter-annual climate variability in many parts of the world, scientists have started to use these links to develop probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts. In the mid-1990s IFDC began collaborating with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) and with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) to establish research activities in southeastern South America to develop effective applications of climate forecasts in the agricultural sector.

Simulation tools are being coupled with probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts, with remotely sensed information and with existing databases to effectively assist the decision-making process in agricultural systems of southeastern South America. For example, in one on-going project, IFDC is collaborating the national climate scientific community and with the NARES to (1) improve the experimental seasonal climate outlooks and (2) develop simulation tools to use the climate forecasts for identifying the best agronomic practices. The participating scientific groups are meeting periodically with representatives of the agricultural sector (public and private) to discuss the climate outlooks and to evaluate the decision-aid tools that are being developed by IFDC and collaborators.

Climate change is already affecting agricultural systems in several regions of the world. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Third Assessment Report (2001) includes a list of agro-ecosystems in which there is sufficient scientific evidence of such effect. Societies, cultures and economies in the world's history have successfully developed by mastering their abilities to adapt to climatic conditions. However, recent decades have been characterized by a dramatic growth in human population that is imposing unprecedented pressures on natural ecosystems and on existing agricultural production systems. In addition to this pressure, societies are expected to face changes in climate at also unprecedented rate. Agricultural production systems will require effective adaptive strategies to overcome these expected pressures in the immediate future.

IFDC is also developing research activities to help the agricultural sector to be prepared for possible scenarios of climate change. Two approaches are being used in these activities. First, using the premise that the most effective manner for assisting agricultural stakeholders to be prepared to adapt to possible climate change scenarios is by helping them to better cope with current climate variability. Second, simulation tools are linked with possible climate change scenarios produced with General Circulation Models (such as GISS, Hadley Center, IRI, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), etc.) or with incremental changes in temperatures and rainfall (e.g., +1^oC, +2^oC, ± 10,20,30% rainfall). The simulation models are then used to assess the vulnerability of different production systems and to identify agronomic practices (sowing time, nutrient management, cultivar type, etc.) better adapted to possible climate change scenarios.

Contact: baethgen@undp.org.uy

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